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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position & Settled Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.